I don't play poker all that often, so it always surprises me when the bad beat bug strikes me. Normally bad beats are explained by noting that poker is bound by laws of probability. There is almost alwsys a chance that in a hand you are clearly favored to win you will end up losing. To the educated poker player, the bad beat phenomenon is a logical and normal component of one's experience. Having some familiarity with numbers, I rationally understand that bad beats will happen.

Ok, now that I've set up the premise, this obvious bad beat rant can begin...

A few hands into a $50 sit and go I pick up KK in middle position. Note that I put in a sizeable raise and what I get called with (terrible call). After pushing all in with his top pair and second kicker (not terrible), I call and find that I am 90% to win. He is basically dead to a jack. Read on to confirm your hunch:

Seat 2: Jays420 (1,285)
Seat 3: mjd29 (1,715)
Seat 4: Twin Angel (1,345)
Seat 5: grizmaldi (2,000)
Seat 6: playin pare (1,430)
Seat 7: PokerPapa999 (765)
Seat 8: Calofio (2,895)
Seat 9: canadiense (2,065)
canadiense posts the small blind of 25
Jays420 posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to grizmaldi [Kh Kc]
mjd29 folds
Twin Angel folds
grizmaldi raises to 150
playin pare folds
PokerPapa999 calls 150
Calofio folds
canadiense folds
Jays420 folds
*** FLOP *** [6d 9s Jh]
grizmaldi checks
PokerPapa999 bets 615, and is all in
grizmaldi calls 615
PokerPapa999 shows [Kd Js]
grizmaldi shows [Kh Kc]
*** TURN *** [6d 9s Jh] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [6d 9s Jh Jc] [7s]
PokerPapa999 shows three of a kind, Jacks
grizmaldi shows two pair, Kings and Jacks
PokerPapa999 wins the pot (1,605) with three of a kind, Jacks


A mere 5 hands later I pick up AA and a bunch of players attempt to limp in. I put in a hefty raise and get called by our hero of the previous hand. I suppose that he was going to try some kind of stop and go play (meaning I may be more likely to fold if he calls now and pushes all in no matter what the flop comes rather than push all in right away). When the flop hits, he does push all in and after the insta-call, I am again happy to see that I am 87% to win. After the turn, that number rises to 95%. Do I even have to tell you what happened?

Seat 2: Jays420 (1,210)
Seat 3: mjd29 (1,640)
Seat 4: Twin Angel (1,270)
Seat 5: grizmaldi (1,560)
Seat 6: playin pare (1,130)
Seat 7: PokerPapa999 (1,680)
Seat 8: Calofio (2,970)
Seat 9: canadiense (2,040)
playin pare posts the small blind of 30
PokerPapa999 posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to grizmaldi [As Ad]
Calofio calls 60
canadiense calls 60
Jays420 folds
mjd29 calls 60
Twin Angel folds
grizmaldi has 15 seconds left to act
grizmaldi raises to 300
playin pare folds
PokerPapa999 calls 240
Calofio folds
canadiense folds
mjd29 folds
*** FLOP *** [3c 5h 8c]
PokerPapa999 bets 1,380, and is all in
grizmaldi calls 1,260, and is all in
PokerPapa999 shows [6s 6d]
grizmaldi shows [As Ad]
Uncalled bet of 120 returned to PokerPapa999
*** TURN *** [3c 5h 8c] [Td]
*** RIVER *** [3c 5h 8c Td] [6c]
PokerPapa999 shows three of a kind, Sixes
grizmaldi shows a pair of Aces
PokerPapa999 wins the pot (3,330) with three of a kind, Sixes
grizmaldi stands up


After getting all my money in with KK and AA and favored to win 90% and 87%, I am sitting on the rail trying to figure out what happened.


That's poker!


Quiz: Can you guess which results are mine and which are the hero's?

I've taken a new position with IFS in NYC! My first day is 2/26/2007 and I'm looking forward to not having to travel for a change.

Not having good luck at the poker table lately. Here is a particularly painful tale...

After a few false starts, I am down to half my original starting stack (3000) with the blinds starting to get stressful. I've been playing pretty conservatively, laying down hands when raised or reraised. In early position I pick up JJ and limp in for 60, confident someone will raise with their ace-rag. I've already made up my mind that if anyone raises, I'll probably reraise, perhaps all-in. The seat next to me obliges with a raise to 240. As a bonus, the button calls and so when it gets back to me the pot is over 500 and with only about 1500 left, I push my remaining chips in. The guy next to me quickly calls and the button folds. I'm thinking I'm probably up against AK, which makes me a slight favorite to more than double up. I am elated when he turns over TT, making me a prohibitive favorite (81%). But will the flop cooperate?

The flop comes JT8, we both make a set! Of course mine is bigger, so I relax, knowing I have just dodged a bullet. I am now 92% to win. The turn is a 6. So at this point there is a single card left in the deck that can beat me. I am now 98% to win. Wait for it...wait for it...yup...river is the case T. Out of another tournament for no reason.

Time to find a new hobby I guess.

Been pretty quiet lately so here's a recent tournament result.

I'm usually pretty tight at the beginning of a large tournament with the idea of letting the early dead money hand over their chips.

First real foray into the game I raise it up in middle position with QQ. Get two callers including the small blind. The flop contains an ace and a king and the small blind bets into me. I'm officially done with the hand.

A few hands later I again pick up QQ and make a similar raise. Folded around. Sigh.

Just a few hands more and I pick up AA in late position and it is folded around to me again. I debate raising or not, keeping in mind all the bad things that can happen if I let people limp in. With only 3 people left to act and with the last QQ hand fresh in my mind, I limp in hoping for a raise. Small blind folds, big blind checks. Oh well, here we go. The flop shows 4JK rainbow and the big blind makes a pot-sized bet. I suppose he would bet if he had a king, but more likely (to me anyway) he has a jack or 4 and wants to see if I caught any piece of the flop. I debate whether to play back but figure king or jack, I'm going to let this guy call off all his chips to me...just like I originally planned. So I smooth call. The turn brings another king. Again another pot-sized bet. Hm, perhaps he actually does have a king. Would you bet if you just made three kings? Wouldn't you give the other guy a chance to hang himself by checking? It seems like a desperate attempt to convince me that he indeed has a jack and he knows I don't have a king. I decide to smooth call again, still thinking his chips will soon be mine. River is a blank and our hero pushes all in. Sigh. Well-played sir, well-played.


Footnote: Yes I called. Yes he had a king. Yes I busted out of the tournament after only playing QQ, QQ and AA.

Moral: Poker is a confusing game sometimes...

As some of you may know, I've been a bit of a poker enthusiast the past several years. A recent trip to Vegas yielding a poker shutout might have dimmed most players spirits, but not mine. I played an online tournament yesterday for $30 and placed third to win about $550. I was actually in the lead with 3 players left, but pushed a marginal hand against an aggressive player and had to lay it down to become the short stack. One memorable hand late was me calling a raise in position with pocket fours. My usual motivation is that if I spike a 4, I'll probably get paid off. The flop came 443! The raiser makes a bet and I smooth call along with one other player. The turn comes another blank and the raiser pushes all in! I pause and call again, hoping to entice the third player to call as well. He folds. Raiser turns over AA. Bad luck for him.

Anyway, besides me playing that guy like a fiddle, the title of this post doesn't quite seem to fit. The past few months, I've actually been thinking of getting an instrument and learning how to play it. My recent trip to Minnesota provided additional inspiration. Soooooo, I figure that this poker money may as well go to good use and I bought one of these.